Will Germany stave off a recession?

November 14, 2019

A huge day for markets, with attention turning to the release of German GDP data.

The EURUSD was fairly muted overnight, trading in a tight range for most of the day. The pair began the day at $1.10082 and remained flat early in the day, ticking up to a high of $1.10199 mid-session. Late trading saw the euro fall to lows of $1.09948 before bouncing back to its current level of $1.10060. The GBPUSD experienced some larger swings but generally followed a similar path to its European counterpart. The pair opened the day at $1.28445 and edged up to an opening-hour high of $1.28619. it gave up some of those gains and was steady for a good chunk of the day. Mid and late session trading saw the pound fall to lows of $1.28209. It has rebounded and currently trading at $1.28486.

The Dow went off to the races overnight as it closed at another record high. The index opened the day at 27,704.32 and looked set for a negative session when it hit a low of 27,560.10 midway through the day. It surged off those lows during the back half of the session, thanks to better-than-expected corporate results as well dovish testimony from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The Dow powered its way to a high of 27,808.50, which is where it closed for the day. The Dax endured dramatic movements but ultimately ended the session flat. The German index opened at 13,240.16 and lifted to an early high of 13,271.99. The Dax suffered a sharp sell-off, falling to a low of 13,135.77 in the next hour or so. It spent the rest of the day regaining those losses before closing at 13,243.47.

A big day ahead for markets, with Germany on the brink of heading into a technical recession. A recession occurs when an economy suffers two consecutive quarters of economic growth. Germany posted negative growth in the second quarter and is expected to again post a contraction of growth (-0.1%) in the third quarter. If Germany can conjure up better-than-expected results, it can avoid a recession.

Other data published today includes:

Canada – NHPI

UK – Retail Sales, RICS House Price Balance, CB Leading Index

Japan – Prelim GDP & GDP Price Index, Tertiary Industry Activity

Australia – Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, MI Inflation Expectations

Europe – Swiss PPI, French Final CPI, European Flash GDP and Employment Change

China – Industrial Production, Fixed Asset Investment, Retail Sales, Unemployment Rate

US – PPI & Core PPI, Unemployment Claims, Natural Gas Storage, Crude Oil Inventories, Fed Chair Jerome Powell Testifies, FOMC Members Randal Quarles, Richard Clarida and Charles Evans speak

 

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