Australian data eyed, UK election looms

September 4, 2019

A ton of action for markets to absorb with local data the centre of attention for the second straight day, while political turmoil is set to engulf the UK once again.

The EURUSD opened and closed rather flat but looked in trouble for a large chunk of the session. The pair began the day at $1.09654 and fell to near-session-lows of $1.09305 a few hours into the day. It stayed near those levels for several hours before dipping again to hit lows of $1.09250 as it threatened to head be $1.09. The euro picked up off that low, peaking at $1.09779 late in the day. It has come off that high slightly and is now trading at $1.09699. The GBPUSD made some modest gains overnight, as it looked to be oversold recently. The pair opened at $1.20592 and began its slide shortly afterwards, falling to multi-year lows of $1.19568. However, the pound came to life shortly afterwards, rallying over the next several hours to peak at $1.21052. It has come off those highs and is currently trading at $1.20904.

The Dow struggled overnight as new trade tariffs kicked in. The index opened at 26,180.10 and edged up to a high of 26,306.02 early in the day. The decline set in shortly afterwards, then dropped sharply in late trading to bottom-out at 25,977.41. It has come off those lows and is now trading at 26,102.74. The Dax was weighed down by the Dow during yesterday’s session after opening at 11,960.86. The German index bumped up to a high of 11,972.37 early before struggling for the rest of the day. It eventually hit a low of 11,863.22 late in the day before rebounding and closing at 11,925.54.

The day ahead looks set to be an interesting one, with Australia publishing crucial data, while the political mess in the UK has gone to another level. Australia will be publishing quarterly GDP data, which is expected to show the slowest annual growth in more than a decade. The quarterly figure is expected to show 0.5% growth, compared to 0.4% at the last reading. This will mean an annual growth of 1.5%, weak growth not seen since the GFC.

On the political front and the UK looks set to head to another general election as Boris Johnson lost a crucial vote on the floor of parliament. The vote was on whether the UK would leave the EU with or without a Brexit deal. That was defeated and now legislation is being put together to stop the UK leaving without a deal. This is seen as an untenable position by Johnson, who could now push for a Fresh election in an attempt to increase his parliamentary majority.

Other data published today includes:

NZ – ANZ Commodity Prices

China – Caixin Services PMI

UK – Inflation Report Hearings, Services PMI

Canada – Trade Balance, Labour Productivity, Overnight Rate, BoC Rate Statement

Europe – European, German and French Final Services PMIs, Italian & Spanish Services PMIs, European Retail Sales

US – Trade Balance, Wards Total Vehicle Sales, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, Beige Book, FOMC Members John Williams, James Bullard and Charles Evans speak

 

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