Crucial US data in focus

February 28, 2019

A packed day ahead for markets with plenty of data set for release, while events away from data could also shape markets.

The EURUSD weakened overnight after opening the day at $1.13871. The pair slid early, dipping to $1.13716 before rallying to a high a few hours later, peaking at $1.14027. The euro could not hold onto those highs as it fell in late trading, bottoming-out at $1.13613. It is currently trading at $1.13714. The GBPUSD enjoyed a strong showing, strengthening overnight. The pair opened $1.32486 and dipped to a low of $1.32307 early in the session. Mid-session trading saw the pound rally to a high of $1.33498 before retracing to its current level of $1.33069.

The Dow was in negative territory for most of the session, but a late rally saw it end the session in the green. The index opened at 26,012.90 and bumped up to a high of 26,064.26 early in the session. It then fell and remained flat throughout mid-session trading before another fall heading into late trading saw the Dow hit lows of 25,878.84. A late rally saw the Dow close at 26,034.92 and has opened slightly lower, currently trading at 26,013.34. The Dax was rather flat overnight, ending the session slightly in the red. The German index opened at 11,516.14 and lifted to an opening-hour high of 11,519.81. The Dax soon fell to lows of 11,437.17 in what looked like an ominous sign of a sell-off. However, the Dax was able to recover, rallying as high as 11,518.58 before closing at 11,488.68.

The day ahead shapes to be a hectic one, with a plethora set for release. The most crucial piece of data being published overnight is the US Advance GDP figure. This quarterly figure has been delayed by the government shutdown at the start of the year. It will be interesting to see if the shutdown made any material difference to this figure. GDP is expected to grow by 2.6%, down from 3.4% at the last reading.

Away from data and Donald Trump is in the middle of talks with Kim Jong Un about North Korean denuclearisation. Both leaders have hinted that this will be a productive and positive meeting, whether actions back up what is being said remains to be seen.

Data released today includes:

NZ – ANZ Business Confidence

Canada – Current Account, RMPI, IPPI

UK – GfK Consumer Confidence, Nationwide HPI

China – Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMIs

Australia – Private Capital Expenditure, Private Sector Credit

Japan – Prelim Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Housing Starts

US – Advance GDP Price Index, Unemployment Claims, Chicago PMI, Natural Gas Storage, FOMC Member Richard Clarida speaks

Europe – German, French and Italian Prelim CPIs, French Prelim GDP, French Consumer Spending, Swiss GDP, Spanish Flash CPI, Swiss KOF Economic Barometer, German Import Prices


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