BoE and PM look to each other for direction, UK currently rudderless

February 19, 2019

More data is due for release from the UK. Will it be as bad as the data released last week?

The EURUSD made some gains overnight after opening the session at $1.12900. The pair dipped to an opening-hour low of $1.12880 before climbing to an eventual high of $1.13331 during the back half of the day. The euro could not hold onto those highs and fell away slightly to its current level of $1.13107. The GBPUSD also made some gains overnight, thanks to a weakening USD. The pair opened at $1.29012 and was steady early, dipping to a low of $1.28907 heading into mid-session trading. The pound bounced off those lows and shot up to a high of $1.29376 a short time later.  It came off those high in a slow decline for the rest of the session and is currently trading at $1.29228.

The Dow was unusually flat overnight as it took a well-earned breather after its monster rally on Friday. The index opened at 25,903.55 and bumped up to a high of 25,939.78 early in the day. It remained uninspiring for the rest of the session, dipping to a low of 25,850.41 mid-session. It quickly recovered from that dipped and was flat for the rest of the day. It is currently trading at 25,903.15. The Dax entered negative territory as it opened at a high of 11,342.47. The German index fell to lows of 11,251.75 a few hours later, before trying to recover those losses for the rest of the session. The Dax closed at 11,307.02.

The day ahead is relatively quiet day ahead for announcements but there are a few significant pieces of information being released. The most important is the Average Earnings Index figure from the UK. This figure represents wage growth in the economy and is crucial to economic prosperity. The figure represents the 3-month moving average compared to the same period a year earlier. The forecast figure is for 3.5% growth. Policymakers and markets are desperate for some good news to come out of the UK after the horror show last week. Will we get it here? The BoE and Theresa May certainly hope so as they currently look like they are out of ideas.

Other data released today includes:

US – NAHB Housing Market Index

Australia – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

UK – Claimant Count Change, Unemployment Rate

Europe – Swiss Trade Balance, European Current Account, European and German ZEW Economic Sentiment

 

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