The week ahead

February 18, 2019

A big week ahead for markets, with events away from economic data likely to bring volatility of its own.

The USD weakened on Friday, allowing paired currencies to rally into the weekend. The EURUSD opened at $1.12943 and declined during the first half of the day before a sharp drop saw the euro fall to a low of $1.12232. A rally during late trading saw the euro hit a high of $1.13055. It has come off those highs and in early Monday trading is currently sitting at $1.12892. The GBPUSD fared better than the euro after opening at $1.27974. After a period of of flat trading, the pound dipped to a low of $1.27836 before rebounding and hitting a late high of $1.28976. It has opened higher this morning and is currently trading at $1.29002.

Indices went off to the races on Friday, buoyed by the US government avoiding another shutdown. The Dow opened at 25,404.83 and declined early to hit a low of 25,270.68. The index soared from that point however, making solid gains hour after hour as it peaked at 25,897.13. It has opened higher and is currently trading at 25,902.32. The Dax was dragged up by the Dow after opening at 11,044.45, around 55 points lower than its closing price the day before. The German index hit an early low of 11,013.76 but then surged over most of the session, peaking at 11,323.76 before closing at 11,317.76.

The week ahead is packed with data from around the world that could bring some volatility with it. As for events away from data, the main things to keep an eye on are Brexit negotiations and the national emergency that was declared by Donald Trump. As the Brexit deadline nears, talks between the UK and EU needs to step up and some sort of agreement needs to be reached, otherwise the UK could leave the union without a deal in place. The national emergency declared by Donald Trump looks set to be headed for the courts after the Democrats signalled their strong opposition to the declaration.

Data released today and the most significant this week includes:

Today – Japanese Core Machinery Orders, UK Rightmove HPI, German Buba Monthly Report, US bank holiday

Tuesday – UK Average Earnings Index, Australian Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Wednesday – Australian Wage Price Index

Thursday – US FOMC Meeting Minutes, Australian Employment Change & Unemployment Rate, German Flash Services PMI

Friday – US Core Durable Goods Orders, Canadian Core Retail Sales, ECB President Mario Draghi, RBA Governor Philip Lowe and BoC Governor Stephen Poloz speak

 

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