US data in focus

February 14, 2019

Plenty of data about today with attention back on the US at it releases important economic data.

The EURUSD struggled overnight as a strengthening USD pushed paired currencies down. The euro opened at $1.13237 and climbed to an early high of $1.13408. It did not take long for the decline to start, with the euro turning negative by mid-session. From there however, the euro continued to fall until it bottomed-out at $1.12592. It is lower in early morning trading, sitting at $1.12507. The GBPUSD was belted as well, shortly after a rally that looked like taking the pound above $1.30. The pair opened at $1.28912 and climbed to $1.29220 before falling back to $1.28729. From there, it surged to a high of $1.29581 in a one-hour period. Just as it looked like going further, a weaker-than-expected CPI figure sent the pound tumbling, where it hit a late low of $1.28428. It is currently trading at $1.28450.

The Dow continues to rally, on the back of the US government avoiding another shutdown. The index opened at 25,418.05 and dipped to an opening hour low of 25,410.21. It then climbed gradually throughout the day, hitting a high of 25,630.41 late in the session. It came off those highs and closed at 25,510.41. The Dax was rather flat once again after opening the session higher. The German index opened at 11,198.10 and kicked up to an opening hour high of 11,219.96. It fell to a low of 11,120.46 a few hours later before pegging back most of those losses, closing at 11,184.96.

The day ahead could bring with it some volatility as a host of data s published from around the world. Markets will be keenly awaiting the release of Retail & Core Retail Sales data from the US. Both figures are expected to come in weaker than their respective prior readings. Retail Sales are expected to grow by 0.1% (vs 0.2% last reading) and Core Retail Sales are expected to be flat at 0% (vs 0.2% last reading). This will be an interesting one to watch as the part of this data was collected during the last government shutdown. Whether this shutdown had any material impact on this figure remains to be seen.

Other data being released today include:

Australia – MI Inflation Expectations

Canada – Manufacturing Sales

Japan – Prelim GDP, Prelim GDP Price Index

China – Trade Balance, USD-Denominated Trade Balance

UK – RICS House Price Balance, MPC Member Gertjan Vlieghe speaks

US – PPI, Unemployment Claims, Business Inventories, Mortgage Delinquencies, Natural Gas Storage

Europe – European Flash GDP, Swiss PPI, German Prelim GDP, German WPI, European Flash Employment Change

 

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