UK inflation in focus

November 20, 2018

A relatively quiet day for data but we could still see some volatility on markets.

The EUR/USD was solid overnight without being spectacular. The pair opened the day at $1.14117 and weakened in early-session trading, sliding to a low of $1.13929. It did not stay there for long as the pair bounced off those lows and climbed through most of the day, peaking at $1.14634 late. It has held onto most of those gains, currently trading at $1.14515. The GBP/USD was much more volatile, with concerns over the UK government causing volatility. The pair opened at $1.28409 and weakened early to $1.28173. It rocketed to a high of $1.28834 a few hours later before plummeting to a low of $1.27924 quicker than the earlier gains were made. It spent late-session trying to recover and it has been rather successful in that endeavour, currently trading at $1.28675.

The Dow continues to disappoint, weighed down by under-performing tech stocks like Apple, Amazon and Facebook. The index opened at 25,388.87 and remained flat early, then bumped up to a high of 25,496.60 mid-session. The rot set in after that as the Dow tumbled over the ensuing several hours, hitting a low of 24,897.20. It regained some of those losses, closing at 25,045.70. The Dax began the session with plenty of potential but was again weighed down by the Dow. The German index opened at 11,351.54 and quickly reached a high of 11,419.20. It quickly gave up those gains as it fell for most of the session, falling to a low of 11,190.60 in the final hour of the day before closing at 11,207.00.

The day ahead may not have a high volume of data but there are some pieces of information that can cause some movements in markets. BoE Governor Mark Carney and various MPC Members will be testifying in front of the UK Parliament’s Treasury Committee about the country’s inflation and also economic outlook. Given the turmoil create over the draft Brexit deal, this testimony could come into sharper focus. Other data set for release today includes:

All – OPEC-JMMC Meetings

NZ – GDT Price Index

US – Building Permits, Housing Starts

UK – CBI Industrial Order Expectations

Canada – Governing Council Members Carolyn Wilkins and Timothy Lane speak

Australia – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, RBA Governor Philip Lowe speaks

Europe – Swiss Trade Balance, German PPI, ECOFIN Meetings, German Buba President Jens Weidmann speaks

 

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