Fed Reserve meeting tomorrow morning

November 8, 2018

It has been a big few days for markets as they digest the midterm election results. The US is once again the focal point leading into the weekend.

The EUR/USD showed some large movements throughout the day, but opened and closed virtually at the same level. The pair opened at $1.14248 and rallied to $1.14719 early before falling off a cliff and hitting session lows of $1.13933 a short time later. Those lows were short-lived as the euro surged to a high of $1.14989 as is entered late-session trading. However, it could not hold those highs as it gave up the vast bulk of its gains to be currently trading at $1.14290. The GBP/USD once again fared better than the euro. The pair opened at $1.30967, climbed to $1.31425 before falling to lows of $1.30723. It bounced off those lows and over the next several hours, the pound rallied to a high of $1.31740. The pound could not hold onto those highs but it did better than the euro, with the GBP/USD sliding over late trading to be currently at $1.31280.

The Dow had a bit of fun overnight, seemingly unperturbed about what was going on with the midterms. The index opened at 25,662.83 and slipped to lows of 25,661.33 a short time later. From there, the Dow rallied for most of the day. The rallies were blotted by flat periods which almost seemed like the Dow was merely taking a breather. The Dow peaked at 26,219.90 during the last hour and is about 10 points off that high currently. The Dax broke the shackles and finally had a session worth talking about. The German index opened at 11,553.87 and dropped to lows of 11,507.60 in the opening hour. The following two hours saw the Dax erase those losses as it climbed to 11,635.11. It endured a brief period of decline, which saw it fall back to 11,528.03 but a late rally saw the Dax close at a high of 11,655.10.

The day ahead is one that could bring with it some more volatility as the last of the undeclared house seats are finally given a home in the wake of the midterms. The Republicans and Democrats can then assess the damage and begin to forge ahead with governing the country. Away from the midterms and the US Fed Reserve meets in the early hours of tomorrow morning to discuss interest rates and monetary policy. While interest rates are expected to remain unchanged, the strong economic data that continues to flow out of the US may change the language used by Fed Chair Jerome Powell as they struggle to keep a lid on an economy that is beginning to pick up momentum. Other data set for release today includes:

UK – RICS House Price Balance

Canada – NHPI, Housing Starts

China – Trade Balance, USD-Denominated Trade Balance

US – Federal Funds Rate, FOMC Statement, Unemployment Claims, Mortgage Delinquencies

Japan – Economy Watchers Sentiment, BoJ Summary of Opinions, Bank Lending, Core Machinery Orders, Current Account

Europe – Swiss Unemployment Rate, German and French Trade Balance, ECB Economic Bulletin, EU Economic Forecasts, Swiss Governing Board Member Andrea Maechler speaks

 

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