Hectic week ahead

July 16, 2018

It’s going to be a hectic week this week, as a smorgasbord of significant data gets released.

The fortunes of the major currencies seemed to rest with the US on Friday as the dollar was the main engine of movement throughout the session. The EUR/USD opened at $1.16690 and then fell steadily until it reached a low of $1.16120. The pair laid low for a few hours before bouncing back and erasing all of those losses, peaking at $1.16857 very late in the session. It is not far off that at the moment, currently trading at $1.16786. The GBP/USD followed a similar path after opening at $1.32022. The pair fell quite considerably as Donald Trump stoked fears that the US and UK would not be able to sign a free trade agreement as the UK government bumbles through Brexit. The pound sunk to a low of $1.31017 and stayed near those levels for some time. It then recovered and began its march upwards, regaining all of those losses. It reached highs of $1.32377 during the last hour of trade. It is not far off that level, currently trading at $1.32249.

The Dow opened at 24,911.79 and climbed to 25,004.71 before falling to lows of 24,877.37. The Dow managed to bounce back and reclaimed those losses as it hit a high of 25.034.31 in late trading. It has jumped in early morning trading, sitting at 25,064.55. The Dax remained quite flat in Friday trading after opening at 12,539.97. The Dax got its highs and lows out of the way early, peaking at 12,584.80 during the second hour of trade and falling to its low of 12,497.30 some two hours later. It traded within a 70-point range for the rest of the night, where it closed at 12,543.55.

The day ahead sees the release of some significant data, which could well bring volatility that is not usually seen on a Monday. The most significant data being published today is the GDP data from China as-well-as the Retail & Core Retail Sales figures from the US. As the key indicator for economic growth, the GDP figure will be looked at closely by markets as China’s growth fuels the economies of smaller economies around the world by means of trade. The Retail Sales figures are significant as the retail sector makes up such a large part of the US economy. Other data set for release today and the most significant for the rest of the week include:

Today – China Industrial Production, Fixed Asset Investment, Retail Sales, Unemployment Rate and NBS Press Conference, European & Italian Trade Balance, Canadian Foreign Securities Purchases, US Business Inventories and Empire State Manufacturing Index, New Zealand CPI.

Tuesday – Australian Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, UK Average Earnings Index, BoE Governor Mark Carney speaks, Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies

Wednesday – UK CPI, US Building Permits & Crude Oil Inventories, Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies

Thursday – UK Retail Sales, Australian Employment Change and Unemployment Rate

Friday – UK Public Sector Net Borrowing, Canadian CPI & Core Retail Sales

 

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