UK data in spotlight, government in chaos

July 10, 2018

A relatively busy day ahead for markets, with plenty of data set for release.

The EUR/USD put in another solid performance, despite weakening late. The pair opened at $1.17383 and climbed for most of the session until it peaked at $1.17898. It dropped away after reaching the high, sinking to a low of $1.17315.  The pair recovered quickly and is currently trading at $1.17540. The GBP/USD was belted overnight as doubt surrounded Brexit negotiations and in fact the UK government itself. The pair opened at $1.33163 and after a slow start, it managed to rally to a high of $1.33626. Things turned ugly a few hours later as new broke that UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson resigned from his position amid fallout over Brexit negotiations. The pair plummeted to a low of $1.31879 in later trading before paring back some of those losses. It is currently trading at $1.32540.

The Dow was virtually unstoppable yesterday after opening at 24,461.00, which was its low. The Dow climbed early and then plateaued during mid-session trading. The then took off later in the day, rallying a high of 24,828.51 going into the close. The Dow has moved up again in early trading this morning, currently sitting at 24,844.75. The Dax remains solid after surviving some early setbacks. It opened at 12,562.01 and weakened to a low of 12,487.55 mid-way through the session. It was able to turn its fortunes around however as it climbed in late trading, closing at a high of 12,572.30.

The day ahead contains plenty of data, headlined by release of UK GDP figures. As the most crucial indicator of economic growth, GDP figures usually attract a lot of market attention. Given the resignations in the UK government, this will intensify the focus on these figures, which could bring it more volatility. Speaking of resignations, the departure of Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson is another blow to the May government. This is the third resignation in as many days as the fallout from Brexit negotiations threatens to tear the government apart. This is an unwanted distraction for the for Theresa May as she tries to negotiate a Brexit deal as well as run the country. There is speculation that the spate of resignations could trigger a challenge to May’s leadership or could even lead to another election. Other data set for release today includes:

China – CPI, PPI

Australia – NAB Business Confidence

Japan – Prelim Machine Tool Orders

Canada – Housing Starts, Building Permits

US – NFIB Small Business Index, JOLTS Job Openings

Europe – French & Italian Industrial Production, European & German ZEW Economic Sentiment

UK – Manufacturing Production, Goods Trade Balance, Construction Output, Index of Services, Industrial Production, NIESR GDP Estimate

 

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