Non-Farm Payroll Friday

May 4, 2018

After the market volatility over the last couple of days, we could see another violent end to the week.

Currency markets showed further signs of volatility as the USD wrangles with other major currencies. The EUR/USD reached lows of $1.19470 from the open but began to gather momentum as it looked to push higher. It climbed to a high of $1.20082 mid-session, tumbled to $1.19484, then fought back to its current level of $1.9900. The pound took a bit more of a beating, with weakness in the currency making in more vulnerable. The GBP/USD started the trading day well, climbing through most of early trading. It eventually peaked at $1.36291 before the weakness set in. It fell to lows of $1.35367 in late trading, although it has recovered some of those losses, currently trading at $1.35698.

The Dow showed more signs of instability, plummeting over 400 points at one stage. It opened the session at 23,901.00 and remained flat in early trading. In struggled to 23946.00, then things turned ugly. Over the ensuing few hours, it declined sharply, where it hit lows of 23,519.32. However, the fightback started in the following hours as it reversed all of those losses and hit session highs of 23,990.10. it has come off those highs, currently trading at 23,908.00. The Dax should have had a stellar night, given that the euro continues its trend downwards, but it was once again thwarted by the Dow, which is a wet blanket at the moment. It reached highs of 12,801.80 early, but it was mainly downhill from there. It steadily declined until it reached session lows of 12,667.10. It has recovered some of those losses as it closed at 12,739.10.

The day ahead could bring about some more volatility as the US releases Non-Farm Payroll data. As the most critical data reflecting the strength of the jobs market, it has previously sparked volatility. As the unemployment rate tightens, markets also look to the Average Hourly Earnings figure, which reflects wage growth. This data has the potential to affect USD-paired currencies. Other data set for release today includes:

China – Caixin Services PMI

Australia – RBA Monetary Policy Statement

Canada – Ivey PMI

US – Unemployment Rate, FOMC Members William Dudley, John Williams, Randal Quarles and Raphael Bostic all speak

Europe – European Retail Sales, European, German and French Final Services PMIs, Italian & Spanish Services PMIs, French Government Budget & Trade Balance, Spanish Unemployment Change

 

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