Crucial US data the centre of market attention

February 14, 2018

A busier day for markets as far as economic information is concerned, with most of the data coming from the US.

The EUR/USD pair is bouncing back after the last week or so, where traders flocked to the USD during the market correction. The pair began the session at lows of $1.22837 before steadily climbing throughout the night. It peaked at $1.23703 before falling away slightly to its current level of $1.23506. The pattern was the same for the GBP/USD pair, although the movements were more pronounced. It too began the session at lows of $1.38317, then steadily climbed. The pound then took off after better-than-expected CPI data was released. The pair peaked at $1.39243, dropped to $1.38500 before regaining some of those losses to be currently trading at $1.38875.

The Dow continues to look uneasy, although it did end the session higher as investors appear to be slowly returning to the stock. After beginning the session strong, it weakened in early trading, falling to as low as 24,402.12. It then began its turnaround, at one point gaining as much as 100 points in a one-hour period. It reached heights of 24,709.70 before paring back some of those gains to be currently trading at 24,665.70. The Dax continues to trade in a fairly tight range, hitting highs of 12,299.15 early. It then ebbed and flowed throughout the night before reaching session lows of 12,181.60. It has recovered from those lows to be trading at 12,253.40.

Turning to today and there is plenty of data being released in the US. The most vital economic data emanating from the US is the CPI & Core CPI data. Retail & Core Retail Sales data is also scheduled for publication, meaning it is a big night for the USD. Aside from data, Donald Trump’s proposed budget for the year ahead has raised eyebrows, with a sharp increase in spending, but seemingly little in the way of cuts in expenditure in other areas. This proposed budget includes large increases to military funding as well as huge infrastructure spending increases. This spending is intended to create jobs. The argument against his plan is that this budget will increase deficits in the US. Other data set for release today includes:

Australia – Westpac Consumer Sentiment

NZ – Inflation Expectations

UK – CB Leading Index

Japan – Prelim GDP & Prelim GDP Price Index

US – Business Inventories, Crude Oil Inventories

Europe – German Prelim GDP & Final CPI, European Flash GDP & Industrial Production, Italian Prelim GDP, SNB Governing Board Member Fritz Zurbrugg & German Buba President Jens Weidmann speak

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