Mario Draghi to speak, Japan monetary policy meeting eyed

September 21, 2017

A busy day of announcements with plenty of data set for release from around the world, with the ECB’s President’s speech and the interest rate meeting from Japan the most significant events.

The USD surged in the early hours of this morning after the Fed Reserve monetary policy meeting. Interest rates were kept on hold (in line with expectations), but the central bank indicated that it would start unwinding its $4.5 trillion dollar balance sheet. The balance sheet was accrued during the height of the GFC and was used to stave off a recession. It is critical that the central bank begins to unwind the balance sheet as the economy strengthens to ensure they have the capacity to deal with any future financial crises. The EUR/USD pairing went from over $1.20 to its current level of $1.1876. The pound was more resilient against the USD however, the GBP/USD pairing going from around $1.354 to its current level of $1.3493. This is likely due to some strength in the pound after the UK Retail Sales figure smashed expectations, posting a 1.0% growth versus a 0.2% growth forecast.

Two of the three major US stocks ended with record closes, highlighted by the Dow finishing up 41.79 points to 22,412.59. This is mainly due to the results of the Fed Reserve meeting and what their plans are for monetary policy settings. The S&P 500 also ended the session at record highs, up 1.59 points to 2,508.24. The NASDAQ bucked the trend however, although it was mainly flat. It did post a slight loss of 5.28 points to 6,456.04.

Gold fell off a cliff overnight as investors reacted positively to the Fed Reserve meeting. Investors left gold in droves and poured money back into equities as the unwinding of the balance sheet is seen as a strong economic indicator from policymakers. Gold is currently at $1,303.50, own $12.90.

Looking at the day ahead and the most significant events emanate from Europe and Japan. The Bank of Japan is holding its interest rate meeting later today. While it is expected that rates will remain on hold (currently -0.10%), most investors will be looking towards what is said by central bankers to get an indication of the strength of the economy as well as the future make up of monetary policy. ECB President Mario Draghi is also due to speak later tonight. Draghi’s speeches are always important as they have the potential to move markets in different, depending on what he is saying. This could be particularly interesting considering both the US and Japanese monetary policy meetings would have been held by the time he speaks.

Other announcements today:

Australia – RBA Bulletin, RBA Governor Philip Lowe is due to speak

Japan – All Industries Activity

Europe – SECO Economic Forecasts, ECB Economic Bulletin, Swiss Trade Balance, Consumer Confidence

UK – Public Sector Net Borrowing, High Street Lending

US – Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, HPI, CB Leading Index, Natural Gas Storage

Canada – Wholesale Sales