UK data eyed during busy night for markets

April 11, 2017

A busier night for markets with plenty of data to be released later today and in the early hours of tomorrow morning.

The most important data is being published by the UK. This data includes: CPI & Core CPI, PPI Input & Output, RPI and also HPI. The CPI is the most crucial piece of data to be released. The CPI is the main contributor to inflation within any economy, which is in turn contributes to economic growth. An increase in consumer prices generally means that there is a demand for products/services within an economy. Higher prices mean that more money is flowing into the economy. While inflation is mainly supply/demand driven, another cause for inflation changes is changes in the value of the local currency. Since the Brexit referendum, the pound has devalued significantly. This means that consumers have to spend more money to buy the same product/service that they did before the referendum. As a result, inflation has spiked. The worry for the UK economy is that inflation accelerates at such a fast pace that the central bank is forced to raise interest rates in order to contain inflation. But, if they raise rates too quickly, it raises the risk of sending the economy into recession. This is because not only does higher interest rates cool inflation, it reduces demand as products/services cost more. So, if inflation is caused by a devaluation of currency rather than an increase in demand, an increase in interest rates may actually stop people from spending money.

Elsewhere around the world, Europe is reporting its Industrial Production figures as well as European & German ZEW Economic Sentiment. Meanwhile, the US is releasing JOLTS Job Openings and NFIB Small Business Index. Finally, Fed Reserve Member, Neel Kashkari, is due to speak.