Yellen & Fed speakers dominate market talk, European announcements eyed

March 3, 2017

Quite a big night for markets, which is full of both speeches and announcements.

Markets will be eyeing speeches made by Fed Reserve Members, led by Fed Chair, Janet Yellen. Other Fed Members speaking include: Charles Evans, Jerome Powell and Stanley Fischer. There is growing speculation that the Fed may raise interest rates again in March, such is the belief in the strength of the US economy. Fiscal stimulus in the way of Donald Trump policies is also driving opinion that the Fed can raise rates. The Fed Reserve needs to assess whether fiscal stimulus will materialise or not. If they believe that policies from Donald Trump will drive growth, then the Fed has a stronger case to raise rates. If they sit back and not raise rates and Trump’s policies cause a spike in growth, the Fed runs the risk of chasing higher inflation. Therefore, it is important to listen to the language of the Fed speakers, in particular Janet Yellen, for clues as to their economic outlook the make-up of monetary policy going into the future.

On the announcement front, it is Europe who is taking centre stage. The list of data set for release includes: European & German Retail Sales, Italian & Spanish Services PMI’s and European/German/French Final Services PMI’s. Retail Sales figures are important as they reflect the strength of the retail sector, both in Europe and Germany. The German figure (or that of individual countries) is generally considered more important as Germany is Europe’s largest economy, therefore the health of their economy is paramount to the European economic recovery. The European figure includes those EU countries whose economies are struggling, therefore they ‘weigh down’ any general European data. The PMI data is a vital snapshot of the services sector in the respective EU countries.

Elsewhere around the world, the UK is publishing crucial Services PMI data, the US is reporting its Final Services PMI & ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI figures and Japan is releasing Consumer Confidence data.