Election the main game in town, likely to cause market turmoil regardless of winner

November 9, 2016

The Presidential Election is obviously the main focus for markets today, as polling booths begin to close in the eastern states. As counting continues, markets will be looking at every piece of information that filters through that gives any sort of indication of who will win the election. The possibility of a closely contested election only adds to market volatility.

This election has been like no other in US history, given the vitriol that has flown back and forth between both candidates. Also, the division among the American people seems to be heightened during this election as both candidates are espousing very different ideologies – Clinton is generally considered a ‘status quo’ candidate whereas Trump is seen as someone who is trying to rock the boat of the ‘political establishment’. Trump has also said that he is likely to challenge the result if he doesn’t win. This will leave the government in limbo until everything gets resolved. This all means volatility in the markets, particularly as the votes remain close. Every movement in the vote count and every state that has been declared won by either candidate is moving the markets. This is sure to be an interesting time for global markets.

As far as announcements are concerned, there are a few pieces of information to come out today.

China is releasing CPI and PPI (Producer Price Index) figures. Both of these figures help indicate consumer confidence within China as these figures reflect consumer spending. Producer Price Index means that if higher prices are charged for products, consumers pay more, which in turn contributes to inflation.

Elsewhere, Japan is releasing their Economy Watchers Sentiment index, UK are releasing Goods Trade Balance data and the US are releasing Final Wholesale Inventories and Crude Oil Inventories figures.