Presidential Election likely to be biggest market mover

November 7, 2016

A relatively quiet day on the announcement front has ensured that the Presidential Election is thrust into the spotlight. Although there is still data being released, particularly from Europe.

As the election is only a couple of days away, traders are watching with keen interest the outcome of arguably the most volatile and vicious Presidential race in history. As election day draws near, so does the gap in the polls between both candidates, with favourite Hillary Clinton still holding onto a narrow lead over her opponent, Donald Trump. For a while now, markets have factored in a Clinton victory, but that looks less certain now, as different controversies have pulled the candidates closer together in the polls. This closeness will no doubt add to market volatility, as people may need to contemplate a Trump victory and what that means to the nation, as slim as his chances might realistically be.

On the announcement front, most of the data is coming from Europe and the US.

Europe is releasing data including: German Factory Orders, Retail PMI, Sentix Investor Confidence and Retail Sales. The retail data is important as it gives us an indication of the strength of the retail sector, while the investor confidence data speaks for itself.

The US are releasing figures including: Labour Market Conditions Index, Loan Officer Survey and Consumer Credit. The Market Conditions data gives us an insight into the overall labour market conditions. The Loan Officer Survey is important as it helps us understand how banks view changing banking regulations, which in turn has an effect on consumer and business lending. Consumer Credit shows us the change in the amount of consumer lending. Consumer lending data is important as it can reflect consumer confidence. The more confident people are, the more likely they are to borrow money.

Elsewhere, Japan is releasing Average Cash Earnings data, Australia is releasing ANZ Job Advertisements figures, UK is coming out with Halifax HPI (House Price Index) figures and finally, the Swiss are coming out with Foreign Currency Reserves and CPI data.