ECB interest rate decision looms

January 19, 2017

Big night for markets as the ECB meets to decide interest rate policy. There are also a few important announcements to come out of the US as well.

Later tonight, the ECB meets for the first time this year to discuss monetary policy for the near term. While there hasn’t been a lot of talk of raising interest rates, there has been growing concern over the ECB’s bond buying program. Late last year, the ECB announced that bond buying will continue until the end of 2017, much longer than many experts predicted. Currently, the ECB purchases 80 billion euros worth of bonds per month. This rate is expected to continue until the end of March, at which time it will be tapered to 60 billion a month until the end of the year. Will the ECB continue with the status quo as far as bond buying is concerned, or will the central bank taper further or will they shorten the period of further bond buying. The asset purchases (bond buying) is as important, or perhaps even more important, to the Eurozone at the moment. The ECB is purchasing Government and Corporate bonds to drive yields lower in the hope that investors will put their money into stocks/equities. This provides more liquidity to the markets. There are some sections of the EU that are concerned that the ECB’s asset purchases is too accommodative and should be wound back.

Over in the US, they are releasing a few pieces of data that are quite important. They include; Building Permits, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Unemployment Claims, Housing Starts, Natural Gas Storage and Crude Oil Inventories. Building Permits & Housing Starts help provide us with a good snapshot of the health of the housing and building sector. The manufacturing data is important as it points towards the relative strength of manufacturing within the US, a much maligned sector within the economy. With Donald Trump’s inauguration just days away and his promise to revive the manufacturing sector, it will be interesting to compare figures before his presidency starts to those during his term.

Elsewhere, Switzerland are releasing PPI (Producer Price Index) data, Europe is releasing Current Account figures. Meanwhile, Canada is Manufacturing Sales & Foreign Securities Purchases data.