Theresa May’s Brexit speech in focus

January 17, 2017

Quite a busy day as far as announcements are concerned, but it is a speech delivered by UK PM Theresa May that has piqued most interest.

May is set to deliver the speech in what is expected to be in the early hours of tomorrow morning (Australian time). The speech will be centred around the likely make up of the UK’s exit from the EU, with reports/rumours that May will opt for a ‘hard Brexit’ with the UK extricating themselves from the single EU market and customs union. This news has rattled some traders and sent the pound falling to a more than 3 month low. Many fear that a ‘hard Brexit’ will make it more difficult for the UK to trade and to take advantage of everything that a common EU market provides. A new trade agreement with the EU could take years to strike.

Another speech that will be watched with keen interest will be from outgoing US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew. He is due to speak about a wide range of subjects, including the economy, tax reform, relations with China, among other things. This interview/speech is slated to begin in the early hours of tomorrow morning as well.

On the announcement front, it is the UK that is also in focus. They are releasing a host of figures, including: CPI & Core CPI, PPI (Producer Price Index) Input & Output, RPI (Retail Price Index), HPI (House Price Index) and finally, the CB (Conference Board) Leading Index. These figures are all inflation-related figures. This can help us see what consumer confidence is like in the country (a more confident and secure consumer is likely to spend more money, therefore increasing demand). Also to note, that since the pound has fallen in value, more money is needed to purchase imported goods, therefore pushing up inflation.

Elsewhere, Australia is releasing Home Loans and New Motor Vehicle Sales data, Japan is releasing Revised Industrial Production figures, Europe is releasing French Government Budget Balance, Italian Trade Balance and German & European ZEW Economic Sentiment data. The US is set to release its Empire State Manufacturing Index and finally, Fed Reserve (FOMC) Members William Dudley & Lael Brainard are due to speak.