Huge week for data, US economy expected to contract

April 27, 2020

There’s a smorgasbord of data that is being published this week with all eyes on the US GDP figure that is being released on Wednesday.

The EURUSD made some solid gains on Friday after opening at $1.07754. The pair was flat early before falling away mid-session to a low of $1.07263. It was not as those lows for long however as the euro rallied to a high of $1.08293. It is not far off those highs and is now trading at $1.08237. The GBPUSD began Friday at $1.23431 and was steady early in the day until mid-session trading saw it fall to lows of $1.22970. It bounced off those lows and rallied to a high of $1.23769 just a few hours later and ultimately ended the week near that price. It has taken off in early Monday trading and is now trading at $1.23935.

The Dow recovered most of the steep losses it sustained on Thursday, continuing a highly volatile period for the index. It opened Friday at 23,425.45 and slipped to a low of 23,264.70 four hours after the open. The Dow surged off those lows, peaking at 23,824.93 late in the day. It started Monday with a sharp decline, but it has regained those early losses and is now trading at 23,855.00. The Dax followed the Dow’s lead after beginning the day at 10,332.54. The German index dipped to a low of 10,254.34 early before rebounding and climbing to a high of 10,484.12 mid-session. It came off those highs and closed at 10,451.49. It has started Monday strongly and is currently sitting at 10,526.52.

The week ahead is jam-packed with data, with attention squarely centred around the publication of GDP data from the US. While the economy was always set for a contraction due to the coronavirus-enforced shutdowns, the key will be extent of the deterioration. The US economy is tipped to contract by 3.9%, but given the extent of these shutdowns, it’s hard to tell how accurate these forecasts are.

The most significant data set for release this week includes:

Tuesday – BoJ Policy Rate, Monetary Policy Statement and Outlook Report

Wednesday – US Advance GDP and CB Consumer Confidence, Australian CPI and Trimmed Mean CPI

Thursday – FOMC Federal Funds Rate, Statement and Press Conference, US Unemployment Claims, China Manufacturing PMI, ECB Main Refinancing Rate, Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference, Canadian GDP

Friday – US ISM Manufacturing PMI


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