Private payrolls data expected today

October 2, 2019

A relatively quiet Wednesday for data which could enable some markets to take a breather from the volatility over the last couple of days.

The USD weakened overnight on the back of weak manufacturing data. The EURUSD started the day at $1.08956 and dipped to a low of $1.08782 mid-session. It climbed slightly over the next few hours before rallying late in the day, peaking at $1.09422. It has come off those highs and is currently trading at $1.09307. The GBPUSD looked in trouble midway through the day before a late rally recovered the heavier losses earlier in the session. The pair opened at $1.22893 and remained flat early before ticking up to $1.23132 mid-session. The pound collapsed shortly afterwards, sinking to a low of $1.22041. However, the pound regained those losses just as quick, surging to a high of $1.23393 late in the day. It could not hold onto those lofty heights, slipping back to its current level $1.22897.

The Dow was belted overnight after the worst manufacturing data seen in 10 years. The index opened at 26,987.35 and was steady early, bumping up to a high of 27,081.03 mid-session. It remained not far off those highs for the next few hours until the manufacturing data was released. The sell-off was in full swing late in the day as the Dow tumbled to lows of 26,555.48. It has come off those lows but is struggling at 26,607.58. The Dax was dragged down by the Dow after beginning the day at 12,420.20. The German index climbed around 50 points from the open and lifted a bit further to hit a high of 12,494.09 early in the day. It gave up those gains mid-session, returning near the levels it opened at. Late trading saw the Dax dive to lows of 12,225.90 before closing at 12,232.97.

The day ahead is light-on when it comes to volume of data, but there is still some significant data to be published. The US will be releasing its ADP Non-Farm Employment Change figure. This is basically a prelude to the official NFP data that is released on Friday. It is expected to show that the US added 140,000 jobs last month, down from 195,000 the month before.

Other data published today includes:

UK – Construction PMI

Japan – Monetary Base, Consumer Confidence

Europe – Spanish Unemployment Change, Swiss CPI

US – Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Member John Williams speaks


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