Super Mario’s last meeting looms

September 12, 2019

A hive of activity today, with a crucial central bank meeting and the release of crucial market data set to make this session an interesting one.

The EURUSD fell overnight, temporarily dipping below $1.10 midway through the day. The pair started the day at $1.10423 and ticked up to a high of $1.10550 early in the day. The sell-off began shortly after, with the euro falling to lows of $1.09841 mid-session. It bounced off those lows late in the day and is now trading at $1.10091. The GBPUSD was a bit more erratic in its movements but followed a similar pattern to the euro. The pair opened at $1.23444 and traded in a tight range, eventually peaking at $1.23700 mid-session. The pound then dropped over the next several hours to bottom-out at $1.23115. It has climbed off that low and is now trading at $1.23302.

The day performed well overnight, closing above 27,000 for the first time since mid-July. The index opened the session at 26,892.68 and dipped to lows of 26,844.21 early in the day. From there, the Dow edged up slightly and remained steady mid-session before climbing late in the day to hit a high of 27,160.88. News broke after the close that Donald Trump was delaying tariffs on goods from China by two weeks which got markets excited. The Dow surged almost 170 points in the opening hours this morning and is currently trading at 27,301.03. The Dax performed well on the back of a rising Dow. The German index started at 12,330.57 and dipped to lows of 12,313.03 early, before picking itself and headed to a high of 12,394.56. It stayed near those levels for the rest of the session before closing at 12,379.92.

The day ahead sees the latest ECB interest rate meeting take place, which is also the last meeting for its President, Mario Draghi. Draghi has been its head since 2011 and has presided over a tumultuous period for European economies. He has overseen the implementation of a cavalcade of monetary policy initiatives designed to stave off a recession. His critics will wonder if his policies have indeed worked or has the stimulus pumped into the economy been misdirected, while his supporters will argue that if it weren’t for his policies, Europe would be in a recession. Both points of view have merit. As for the meeting itself, rates are expected to remain unchanged but other monetary policy settings may be adjusted, or at the very least, Draghi may signal the bank’s intention of adjustments in the near future. This could have implications for both the euro and the Dax.

Data published today includes:

All – OPEC-JMMC Meetings

Canada – NHPI

UK – CB Leading Index

Japan – Tertiary Industry Activity

China – Foreign Direct Investment

US – CPI & Core CPI, Unemployment Claims, Natural Gas Storage, Federal Budget Balance

Europe – Monetary Policy Statement, ECB Press Conference, European Industrial Production, Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate, German & French Final CPIs, Swiss PPI

 

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