A week packed with data as another shutdown looms

February 11, 2019

This week sees a deluge of economic data being released which could bring more volatility to markets.

The EURUSD continues its woes of late, threatening to fall below $1.13. The pair opened at $1.13372 and remained flat early, dropping to $1.13216 before climbing to a high of $1.13502. Late-session trading saw the pair fall to a low of $1.13188. It is not far off Friday’s low, currently trading at $1.13164. The GBPUSD opened at $1.29454 and was flat early before dropping to a low of $1.29206 mid-session. It bounced of those lows, peaking at $1.29756 just a few hours later. It gave up most of those gains and is currently trading at $1.29302.

A late rally on Friday meant the Dow avoided significant losses but it still closed in the red. The index opened at a high of 25,139.47 and was on a gradual slide for most of the day, tumbling to lows of 24,877.67. A rally late in the session saw the Dow erase most of those losses as it closed at 25,096.87. Traders seem to be avoiding the Dax like the plague as its run of negative sessions continues. The German index opened at 11,017.00 and bumped up to an early high of 11,043.40. It was mainly downhill from there as the Dax slid to a low of 10,859.90. A late rally saw the Dax recover some losses, closing at 10,952.40.

The week ahead is dotted with significant data releases which can bring with it some volatility, but political matters may once again dominate headlines. The US government has until the end of this week to negotiate a new government spending bill, otherwise the it will be in partial shutdown for the second time this year. As with the last shutdown, the main sticking point to an agreement is the funding for Donald Trump’s border wall. Whether he receives his funding this time around remains to be seen, although it is unlikely.

Data released today and the most significant this week include:

Today – UK GDP, Prelim GDP, Manufacturing Production, Prelim Business Investment, Construction Output, Goods Trade Balance and Industrial Production

Tuesday – BoE Governor Mark Carney speaks

Wednesday – NZ Official Cash Rate, RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement & Rate Statement, RBNZ Press Conference and Inflation Expectations, UK CPI, Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks

Thursday – US CPI & Core CPI, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr speaks

Friday – US Retail & Core Retail Sales, PPI, UK Retail Sales


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