Turbulent times could lay ahead for the UK and other markets as the parliament votes on Theresa May’s Brexit deal.

The EUR/USD remained quite flat during the trading day as it tries to recover from the dive it took on Friday. The pair opened at $1.14568 and climbed in early trading, peaking at $1.14814 mid-session. The euro dropped over the next couple of hours, hitting a low of $1.14500. The pair recovered from that point however, climbing up close to the earlier highs. It is currently trading at $1.14675. The GBP/USD opened the day at $1.28494 and traded in a tight range early before dipping to a low of $1.28176. The pound bounced off those lows and rallied to a high of $1.29293 late in the day. It could not hold onto those highs and is currently trading at $1.28631.

The Dow was a strange one yesterday, unsure of which direction it wanted to go. The index opened at 23,940.18 and declined rapidly throughout early trading. Mid-session trading saw the Dow drop to lows of 23,716.96. The Dow performed an about-face, rallying in the back half of the session to a high of 23,955.50. It has come off those highs and is currently trading at 23,908.23. The Dax opened the week at 10,802.61, around 75 points lower than its closing price on Friday. The German index dipped to an early low of 10,784.69 before rallying over the following few hours to a high of 10,887.19. The Dax closed at 10,869.19.

The day ahead looks like it will be a volatile one, with the Brexit vote occurring during the early hours of tomorrow morning. The chances of the current deal being passed are looking slimmer, causing a nervous Theresa May to conduct a mental count of votes in her head. It seems she can see the writing on the wall. The best-case scenario is for the deal to be passed by the parliament, ensuring the Brexit process moves to the next stage and for Brexit to be fulfilled. The worst-case scenario is that the deal is voted down and the opposition Labour Party calls a vote of no confidence on Theresa May’s job and the UK could head to the polls again for another general election. Making the PM’s job even more difficult is the fact that there is dissension within her own party. Look for volatility in the pound and also the FTSE. Since there are two sides to the Brexit negotiations, there may also be some volatility in the euro and the Dax.

Data released today includes:

Japan – Machine Tool Orders

Europe – European Trade Balance, French CPI & Government Budget Balance, ECB President Mario Draghi speaks

US – PPI & Core PPI, Empire State Manufacturing Index, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, FOMC Member Esther George speaks