NFP Friday

December 7, 2018

Friday could bring with it a lot more volatility as traders turn their attention to US employment data.

A weakening USD allowed paired currencies to rally overnight. The EUR/USD opened the session at $1.13432 and was flat early before dropping to a low of $1.13200 at the beginning of mid-session trading. The euro rallied off that low, surging to a high of $1.14121 in late trading. It came off those highs and is currently trading at $1.13742. The GBP/USD followed a similar path to the euro after opening the day at $1.27309. The pound began to slide early, hitting a low of $1.26983 before bouncing off those lows and climbing to a high of $1.28110 in late trading. Like the euro, the pound has come off its highs where it is currently trading at $1.27818.

The Dow was hammered for most of the session, with a late rally making things look more respectable. The index opened at a high of 25122.80 and dropped almost 600 points within the first 10 minutes of trading. The slide continued for the Dow as it tumbled to lows of 24,243.20 late. A rally from that low in the final hours before close saw the Dow finish up at 24,912.80. The Dax was another that got hammered overnight and closed before the Dow rallied late in the day. The German index opened at 11,031.63 and climbed to a high of 11,089.30 during the first hour of trade. The fall for the Dax began shortly after that and over the next several hours, fell to a low of 10,756.80. It tried to mount a comeback late in the day as the Dax closed at 10,938.30.

The day ahead is littered with plenty of data, but it is the US where market attention turns. The US will be releasing Non-Farm Employment Change, Average Hourly Earnings and Unemployment Rate data. All of this data is crucial to the US economy as it reflects the strength of the US jobs market. This data is also used by the Fed Reserve to help determine monetary policy settings for the country. Other data released today includes:

All – OPEC Meetings, OPEC-JMMC Meetings

China – Trade Balance, USD-Denominated Trade Balance

UK – Halifax HPI, Consumer Inflation Expectations

Canada – Employment Change, Unemployment Rate

Japan – Average Cash Earnings, Leading Indicators, Household Spending

Europe – German & French Industrial Production, French Trade Balance, Swiss Foreign Currency Reserves, European Revised GDP & Final Employment Change

US – Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations, Final Wholesale Inventories, Natural Gas Storage, Consumer Credit, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and FOMC Member Lael Brainard speak


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