BoE meeting looms

August 2, 2018

A smorgasbord of market data set for release today should provide some market volatility.

The euro continued to struggle, giving up a most of the gains it made earlier in the week. The EUR/USD opened at $1.16893 and traded in a tight range for most of the trading day. The pair peaked at $1.16993 in mid-session trading before falling to lows of $1.16565 late in the day. It is not far off those lows, currently trading at $1.16611. The GBP/USD remained largely flat as well, seemingly uninspired by markets yesterday. The pair opened at $1.31160 and fell to lows of $1.30944 a few hours later. After hitting the low, the pair rallied over the next few hours to a high of $1.31433. It then gave up some of those gains as it ebbed and flowed for the rest of the night. It is currently trading at $1.31217.

The Dow endured a wild session yesterday, helped along by the Fed meeting in the early hours of the morning. The Dow opened at 25,494.78, peaked at 24,498.55 during the opening hour, then plummeted around 160 points over the next hour or so to 25,354.48. It remained stable through mid-session trading and climbed to 25,484.89 leading into the Fed meeting. Markets did not seem to like to outcome of the meeting as the Dow tumbled to lows of 25,275.85 a matter of hours later. It has recovered from that low and is currently trading at 25,351.30. The Dax endured an underwhelming day after opening at 12,811.67. The Dax hit a high of 12,839.60 during the opening hour before things headed south, not helped by a falling Dow. The Dax try to show some signs of life, but was unable to turn it around as it dropped to a low of 12,697.70. It did bounce off those lows, closing at 12,733.60.

The day ahead contains plenty of significant market releases, none more important than the BoE Official Bank Rate meeting. Analysts and markets are expecting an interest rate rise from its current level of 0.50% to 0.75%. It will be crucial to those trading the FTSE or any GBP-paired currencies to keep up to date with the BoE monetary policy releases and the commentary from policymakers that come with it. The last interest rate hike caused some volatility for varying reasons, so it will be interesting to see what this rate meeting will do. Along with interest rates, the BoE will be publishing the Asset Purchase Facility and the central bank’s inflation report. All of these tie into the overall monetary policy outlook for the BoE. BoE Governor Mark Carney will also be speaking a short time later. Other data set for publication include:

UK – Construction PMI

Australia – Trade Balance, AIG Services Index

Europe – Swiss Manufacturing PMI, Retail Sales & SECO Consumer Climate, European PPI

US – Challenger Job Cuts, Unemployment Claims, Factory Orders, Natural Gas Storage

 

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