Trade wars escalate

July 11, 2018

A relatively quiet Wednesday for data as focus turns to the Trump administration.

The EUR/USD struggled to hold onto the gains it had made over the previous few days. The pair opened at $1.17485 and peaked at $1.17619 a short time later. It began to weaken from that point, sinking to a low of $1.16982 mid-session. The pair was able to regain a fair chunk of those losses, rallying as far as $1.17488. It has opened lower and is currently looking quite shaky, trading at $1.17266. The GBP/USD remained quite flat after opening at $1.32545. The pair gradually fell to a low of $1.32220 mid-session, then rallied over the next couple of hours to reach a high of $1.33005. It quickly gave up those gains and almost reached session lows again. It ebbed and flowed for the rest of the session as it traded in a tight range. It is currently trading at $1.32622, not far off its opening price yesterday.

The Dow was set for another solid session until news broke that Donald Trump will be adding tariffs to $200 billion worth of goods from China. The Dow opened at 24,787.26 and made some solid gains for most of the session, where it hit a high of 24,943.30. The Dow then sunk to a low of 24,755.00 during the last hour of trade. It has opened lower this morning and is struggling at 24,716.25. The Dax was able to escape the tumbling Dow as it closed around an hour before sell-off. The Dax opened at 12,582.28 and fell to a low of 12,529.75 a short time later. It then turned itself around and rallied to a high of 12,641.80 The Dax came off those highs, but managed to close higher, closing at 12,610.80.

The day ahead is relatively quiet as far as announcements go, so attention turns to the Trump administration. Donald Trump has announced a 10% tariff on $200 billion worth of goods imported from China. This is seen as an escalation in the trade war and it will be interesting to see how China reacts. This announcement has already shaken markets, so retaliatory measures by China could send markets lower. The data set for release today includes:

UK – NIESR GDP Estimate, BoE Governor Mark Carney speaks

Australia – Westpac Consumer Sentiment, Home Loans

Japan – Tertiary Industry Activity

Europe – ECB President Mario Draghi speaks

Canada – BoC Overnight Rate, BoC Monetary Policy Report, Rate Statement and Press Conference

US – PPI & Core PPI, Final Wholesale Inventories, Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Member Raphael Bostic & John Williams speak.

 

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