Quiet day for announcements but potential big movements linger

May 18, 2018

A rather quiet end to the week as far as data releases go, but there is still potential for some big moves.

The USD continues to dominate over other major currencies, with the two major pairings featured here both following similar patterns of fluctuations. The EUR/USD started well, reaching highs of $1.18370 early, staying near those levels for the next few hours before giving up all of those gains. The pair dropped to a low of $1.17753 in later trading. It is not far of those levels, currently trading at $1.17905. The GBP/USD also started the session strongly, peaking at $1.35689. It held those levels for a few hours before plunging to lows of $1.34732. It has regained some of those losses since, currently trading at $1.35114.

The Dow continues to be enigmatic, with some large swings during yesterday’s session. It opened the session at 24,762.00 and declined to 24,684.00 in mid-late session trading. It then rocketed up 150 points in the next hour to hit session highs of 24,835.72. That was not the end of the volatility however. Over the following four hours it plummeted to a low of 24,630.47. It clawed back some of those losses, currently trading at 24,737.20. The solid performances continue for the Dax, which is shaping as being a stable stock, compared the Dow. The Dax fell to session lows of 12,976.10 in the opening hour. From then on, it was mainly up. The Dax climbed to highs of 13,126.10 in late trading but gave up a small amount of those gains to close at 13,103.00.

The day ahead appears quiet and steady, due to the lack of significant data releases but traders cannot afford to be complacent. Economic and geo-political events could play a part in how the markets are shaped for today. There seems to be some uncertainty surrounding a trade deal between the US and China, while other reports suggest that there could be a deal which includes a $200 billion trade deficit reduction for the US. There’s plenty of speculation around, but nothing concrete. Other events around the world that may have an impact include the US-North Korea meeting seemingly in jeopardy. Tensions in Israel over the relocation of the US embassy could further escalate, bringing uncertainty to the region.

As for data releases today, these include:

US – FOMC Members Loretta Mester & Lael Brainard speak

Europe – German WPI & PPI, European Current Account & Trade Balance

Canada – CPI, Core, Median, Common and Trimmed CPIs, Retail & Core Retail Sales

 

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