US data sends markets wild

February 15, 2018

It was quite a volatile night of trading overnight as much better-than-expected US CPI data (0.5% vs 0.3% expected) sent markets into a frenzy.

The Dow was once again the most volatile, as the CPI data stoked fears of a faster and sharper interest rate rise. When the data was released, the Dow plummeted 500 points in 15 minutes to a session low of 24,309.00. After that it bounced back off those lows to eventually recover all of those losses as it soared to a session high of 24,926.88 (over 600 points). It has since come off those highs slightly, currently trading at 24,883.60. The Dax was also affected by the US data as the shaky Dow caused some panic in European markets. The Dax tumbled 200 points in the same 15 minutes after the US data was released. It hit session lows of 12,069.17 before rocketing up over 350 points to session highs of 12,443.20. It has since retreated off those highs, trading at 12,416.40.

Currencies were not immune to the market volatility, with the EUR/USD weakening in the face of uncertainty as investors flocked to the USD. The pair hit session lows of $1.22737 not after the release of the CPI figures. After the Dow bottomed out and started its rebound, the currencies paired with the USD began their recovery as well. The EUR/USD gained almost two cents as it reached session highs of $1.24638. It is currently trading at $1.24536. The GBP/USD fared better, after dipping to session lows of $1.37986, it soared more than two cents to hit session highs of $1.40153. It is not far off that high at the moment, sitting at $1.40026.

Looking at today’s announcements and the most important data for markets is the Employment Change & Unemployment Rate data from Australia. As Australia continues to run with near record low interest rates, it is vital that Australia posts strong economic results to assure markets that the economy is continuing to recover from financial crises of the past. Hampering this recovery is the record amount of debt the country is carrying, which has recently passed $600 billion. Other data set for release today includes:

Japan – Core Machinery Orders, Revised Industrial Production

Australia – MI Inflation Expectations

Canada – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, BoC Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri speaks

NZ – Business NZ Manufacturing Index

Europe – Italian Trade Balance, European Trade Balance

US – PPI, Core PPI, Empire State & Philly Fed Manufacturing Indexes, Unemployment Claims, Capacity Utilisation Rate, Industrial Production, NAHB Housing Market Index, Natural Gas Storage, TIC Long-Term Purchases