Attention turns to UK as data and central bank speakers likely to move pound

October 17, 2017

A busy day ahead for markets with plenty of data set for release from around the world, while central bank figures feature prominently.

The USD showed some fight overnight, strengthening against a basket of currencies. The EUR/USD has dipped back into $1.17 territory, currently trading at $1.1793. We can expect further volatility throughout the rest of the week as data is published and central bank figures speak. The pound seemed to buck the trend, the GBP/USD pair continuing to trade in the $1.32 region, where it is currently at $1.3251. We may see some volatility around the time the UK CPI is released and also when BoE Governor Mark Carney speaks.

US stocks maintained their strong results overnight seemingly unfazed by anything happening in the world. The Dow was the best performer, up 85.24 points (+0.37%) to close just shy of another “1000” milestone, at 22,956.96. Will it hit 23,000 during the next trading session? The NASDAQ ended the session up 18.20 points (+0.28%) to 6,624.00, while the S&P 500 added 4.47 points (+0.17%) to close at 2,557.64. European stocks ended the session reasonably flat, the FTSE down 8.47 points (-0.11%) to 7,526.97 while the DAX added 11.83 points (+0.09%) to close at 13,003.70.

Gold seems to have taken a small turn for the worse in its revival, falling back below $1,300 an ounce, currently trading at $1,297.60. This may be in part due to the strong performance of stocks and the strengthening of the USD. Meanwhile, Oil is on a tear, almost hitting $52 a barrel as tensions between Iraqi and Kurdish forces escalate. Iraq has taken control of oil rich areas around the city of Kirkuk, driving uncertainty about oil supply.

Turning to events later today and in the early hours of tomorrow morning and the UK is where the most significant events are emanating from. From a data perspective, the CPI figure is crucial for the UK economy and outlook moving forward. BoE Governor Mark Carney is also due to speak. As head of the UK’s central bank, it is important to listen to what he has to say about the economy and the future of monetary policy. These data publications and speeches have the potential to move UK stocks, as well as the GBP/USD pairing. Coming up for the rest of the day:

Australia – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, New Motor Vehicle Sales, RBA Assistant Governor Luci Ellis speaks

Europe – Italian Trade Balance, European & German ZEW Economic Sentiment, European Final CPI & Core CPI

UK – PPI Input, RPI, Core CPI, HPI, PPI Output, MPC Members David Ramsden & Silvana Teneyro speak

US – Import Prices, Capacity Utilisation Rate, Industrial Production, NAHB Housing Market Index, TIC Long-Term purchases, Fed Reserve Member Patrick Harker speaks