USD, stocks closely watched as Non-Farm Payrolls released tonight

October 6, 2017

A big night ahead for markets, with most of the focus centred around the US Non-Farm Payroll and Average Hourly Earnings data.

The USD continues to strengthen against a basket of currencies, buoyed by strong data beats overnight as well as speeches made by Fed Reserve speakers. The Non-Farm payroll figure is a low expectation, so it is possible that this has translated into market confidence that the forecast figure will be surpassed. The EUR/USD has fallen to its current level of $1.1709 and threatens to drop into $1.16 territory. The GBP/USD pairing has also fallen to $1.3117.

US stocks all ended the session at least half a percent higher, continuing the pattern of record closes. The NASDAQ was the best of the stocks, adding 50.73 points (+0.78%) to close at 6,585.36. The S&P 500 posted it’s first 8-day winning streak in 4 years, up 14.33 points (+0.56%) to close at 2,552.07. The Dow gained 113.75 points (+0.50%) to end the session at 22,775.39. European stocks were mixed, the DAX shaving 2.47 points (-0.02%) to remain flat at 12,968.05. The FTSE performed well, adding 40.41 points (+0.54%) to close at 7,507.99.

Turning to events today and the most significant data release is the US Non-Farm Payroll & Average Hourly Earnings figures. The Non-Farm figures denotes the number of jobs that were added to the economy in the previous month. As the economy reaches full employment, the Average Hourly Earnings data comes further into focus as this reflects wage growth for workers. Wage growth is vital to economic growth and inflation. The forecast figure is for 82,000 jobs to be added, which is considered quite a low figure, considering 156,000 were added the previous month and 189,000 the month before. This has some people confident that this figure will be beaten easily.

Other announcements today include:

China – Bank holiday

Japan – Average Cash Earnings, Leading Indicators

UK – Halifax HPI, MPC Member Andy Haldane speaks

Canada – Ivey PMI, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate

Europe – German Factory Orders, French Government Budget Balance, Italian Retail Sales

US – Unemployment Rate, Final Wholesale Inventories, Consumer Credit, Fed Reserve Members William Dudley and Robert Kaplan speak