Non-Farm figures released tonight

May 5, 2017

A big night for markets, with focus directed mainly on the US and the release of Non-Farm data. Meanwhile, the French election edges closer.

Markets are gearing up for the all-important Non-Farm employment data. This data includes: Non-Farm Employment Change, Average Hourly Earnings and Unemployment Rate. The headline figure that markets will be looking at is the Employment Change figure. This depicts the change in the number of employed people from the previous month. As such, these figures are watched ever so closely, not just by the markets, but by the Fed Reserve, who use these figures as part of decision-making process when it comes to interest rates. Also of increasing importance is the Average Hourly Earnings figure. As the US jobs market continues to tighten, the hourly earnings data, which reflects the change in people’s wages (ie wage inflation), becomes even more important in determining the health of the jobs market. Wage inflation means that businesses are able to spend more to attract employees. This is the case especially when the supply of available workers decreases (due to stronger employment data). Wage inflation is also vital for workers themselves as it helps them keep up with increases in the cost of living. If wage inflation remains stagnant, or remains considerably week for a long period of time, it runs the risk of pushing people below the poverty line as more and more people cannot afford to keep up with cost of living pressures.

Also out of the US, Fed Chair, Janet Yellen, is due to speak in the early hours of tomorrow morning. Fed Reserve Members, Stanley Fischer & Charles Evans, are due to speak. The US is also releasing Consumer Credit data.

Elsewhere around the world, Europe is publishing Swiss Foreign Currency Reserves & Retail PMI. Canada is reporting Employment Change, Unemployment Rate & Ivey PMI data. Finally. the French election is coming to its conclusion over the weekend, with Macron still the favourite to become the next President of France. France also has a bank holiday next Monday.