French election enters second round, possible impact for EU

April 24, 2017

The first round of the French elections were held yesterday, with the top two candidates, Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, progressing through to the second round. In what is arguably France’s most important election in many years, the second round pits candidates with strongly opposing ideologies, against each other. The second round will be held on 7th May.

This election could well hold the future of the EU in its hands. Emmanuel Macron is a staunch EU supporter and wants France to remain in the EU, whereas Marine Le Pen has made her anti EU sentiments well known to the world. If Macron wins, it will be the status quo for France and Europe. However, if Le Pen wins, we could see movements made that may see France hold a referendum on EU membership (Frexit). It will be a fascinating period leading up to the second round as both candidates modify their campaign strategies to appeal to vastly different sets of voters. Not much has been made of the economic policies of either candidate, rather, most of the attention has been centred around immigration and the EU stance of both candidates.

Announcements from around the world a light-on for today. In saying that, announcements set for release today include: UK CBI Industrial Order Expectations, CB Leading Index from China and Canadian Wholesale Sales. Europe is releasing German Buba Monthly Report and German Ifo Business Climate. Meanwhile, US Fed Reserve Member, Neel Kashkari, is due to speak.

Tuesday sees a few more announcements from around the world. These include: Japanese SPPI, UK Public Sector Net Borrowing and Belgian NBB Business Climate data. Meanwhile, the US is publishing HPI, S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI, CB Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales and Richmond Manufacturing Index.

Finally, it is important to note that Italy, Australia and New Zealand all have public holidays tomorrow.