Quiet Monday belies massive week ahead as Dutch election and US interest rate decision loom

March 13, 2017

An otherwise quiet start to a big week for markets, with plenty of events set to cause market volatility.

Headlining the week is the general election in the Netherlands on Wednesday. According to various sources, the election is too close to call at the moment, which should cause a stir with the European markets. Markets around the world will be watching this election with great interest. This is because one of the leading candidates, Geert Wilders, is opposed to the EU and will likely look for the Netherlands to leave the Union, although the other competing parties have refused to form government with him, such is the way the government structure works over there. As we have seen with Brexit, this will still likely cause market volatility. Even though the economies of the two countries are vastly different, a further undermining of the EU in terms of another country exiting can cause markets to be nervous.

The other event that is likely to cause some market reaction id the US Fed Reserve’s interest rate decision in the early hours of Thursday morning. There seems to be s strong consensus that the Fed Reserve will lift interest rates at its meeting, as the economic data remains strong and continues to improve. However, US CPI data is released only a matter of hours prior. Since inflation is one of the Fed’s key indicators it uses in deciding monetary policy, could a disastrous inflation figure suddenly cause the Fed to take a more cautious approach?

Other major events for the week include: UK interest rate decision, Japanese interest rate decision, Chinese Industrial Production, US Retail Sales, Australian Unemployment Rate and G20 Meetings.

As for today, Japan is set to release Tertiary Industry Activity data, Europe is publishing Industrial Production figures and the US is reporting its Labour Market Conditions Index. Finally, ECB President, Mario Draghi, is due to speak.