EU Membership Court Ruling, Trump Executive Order both have huge implications

January 24, 2017

A much busier day for markets as there are a number of events that are likely to move markets, along with a host of data, mainly Europe and the US.

One of the main talking points for markets today is the UK High Court case that draws to a close today, with an unprecedented 11 High Court Justices set to deliberate the exact method the UK can leave the European Union. The UK Government is trying to enact Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, which enables the start of the lengthy process of leaving the EU. They base this on results of the Brexit vote. However, their opponents, who had initiated this court action, believe that the Government has no right to enact Article 50 without it going to a vote to Parliament first. This has massive implications as it will delay the exit from the EU and likely ‘water down’ the terms in which they leave. Currently, the UK is in line for a ‘hard’ Brexit, meaning that they intend to leave the single common market and the customs union. A vote in Parliament will involve lengthy negotiations and compromise. This will add to uncertainty for markets and will likely increase volatility.

Out of the US comes news that Donald Trump has used an executive order to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, or TPP. This was a trade deal that included many of the Pacific nations, including Australia. This has great implications for the exports and imports of each of the participating nations. Markets now await Trump’s next move when it comes to trade with these nations. Will the TPP be replaced? What will any subsequent replacement look like.

As far as announcements go, most of the activity is based in Europe. Later today they are releasing a host of figures. This includes; European/German/French Flash Manufacturing PMI’s and European/German/French Flash Services PMI’s. The US is releasing their Flash Manufacturing PMI as well as Existing Home Sales & their Richmond Manufacturing Index data. The UK is releasing Public Sector Net Borrowing figures, meanwhile, Japan is releasing their Flash Manufacturing PMI and Australia is releasing CB (Conference Board) Leading Index data.